We all know about the US team, so I will tell you a little about Spain, a team I had the chance to see play live twice while in France.  The first in a 0-1 loss to Germany in a game which they dominated large stretches of the game and then in a 0-0 tie against China which saw them advance through to the knockout rounds.

Spain is fun to watch, has some talented players and could knock off the US.  But I don’t think they will.

A few reasons why Spain could beat the US:

Game changing players:

Jennifer Hermoso (pictured below) is a special player.  She is capable of moments of brilliance.  Her movement off the ball and creativity on the ball make her a constant threat.  She is a lefty that is one of the most confident and comfortable players on the ball in the entire tournament.  She will float a bit, at times dropping into the midfield and at other times drifting wide up top.

Although less heralded, Virgina Torrecilla, who plays for Montpellier in France, is the brains in the midfield, constantly on the ball, delivering a range of passes and setting the tempo for the team.  If she is on, she could give the US team problems.

Of course there are other key players, but these two caught my eye in both games.

You need the ball to score and Spain usually has it:

Spain has dominated possession in their three games.  61% against China, 59%  against Germany and 72% against South Africa.  If they can do the same against the US, it will lead to scoring chances and also keep the US defending.

A few reasons why the US will win:

Spain creates chances but lacks a consistent scoring presence:

In the three games which Spain dominated possession, they won , lost and tied so their possession doesn’t always amount to goals and wins.  Their buildup in the back and midfield in amongst the best in the world, but they lack individual presence around the goal.

US players will change the way Spain plays:

It’s one thing to be confident on the ball and possess with numbers going forward against China and South Africa, and even Germany who sat in and played off the counter, but another thing to do it against the three headed monster also known as the US attack.  The US will punish mistakes in the transition with their dynamic individual players in a way that China and South Africa couldn’t and Germany did.

Keys to watch:

Does one team adjust and how?  If the game plays out with both teams playing a 1-4-3-3 (Spain point forward and the US often point back) it will provide for an open and exciting game.  Transition (both ways) will be key and both teams will have players isolated 1v1 out wide and the ability to win those match-ups will be key.

Spain comes in with nothing to lose as they aren’t expected to win.  Do they try to dictate the style of game and hope attacking with numbers and spreading out the US in a way they aren’t accustomed to (or necessarily good at) will open up spaces against the US defense?  Or does Spain sit in a 1-4-5-1 and force the US team find space to play?

Ultimately, the US knows that Spain will likely out-possess them but they also know the US has some key pieces that Spain will have a difficult time shutting down.

After seeing both teams play live (US three times and Spain twice), my gut tells me the US will win this one.  The US could score 3-4 goals if they are on, but if they aren’t at their best, don’t be surprised if this is a one goal game either way.

It promises to be a contrast of styles and exciting game, which is want you want at this stage of the tournament.

Jennifer Hermoso, Spain’s talented attacking player will be a huge factor in the game.